Strategy consulting and scenario planning
Long-term strategy for online news.
www.futureexploration.net/services ...
Newspaper Extinction Timeline
www.futureexploration.net ... pdf
Arne Sørensen
... Har vi erkendt industrialiseringen i arkitekturen? (Sørensen 1933: 113).
... det er lige så vigtigt at vide, hvilke mennesker man skal bygge til, som at kende byggematerialer og teknik. (Sørensen 1933: 113).
Sørensen, Arne 1933: Funktionalisme og samfund. Forlaget Fremad.
The Age of Heretics, by Art Kleiner (1996, Doubleday/Currency).
... Tells the story of Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack, and the other early scenario pioneers.
www.web.archive.org ...
Kleiner, A. (1999) ‘Scenario practice’, written for the Whole Earth Quarterly.
www.web.archive.org ...
van der Heijden, K. (1996) Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester.
The Fortune Sellers
The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, William A. Sherden (1998: John Wiley and Sons.
Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future
Gill Ringland, 1998, John Wiley and Sons, 407 pp.
... A confidence-building encyclopedia of scenario projects done to date, in the U.S., Europe, and South Africa.
www.web.archive.org ...
Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios by Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Editor) 1997.
www.amazon.co.uk/Learning-Future ...
Plotting Your Scenarios
Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz 1998
www.adaptknowledge.com ... pdf.
Gloal Business Network (GBN)
Global Business Network was a leading consulting firm that specialized in helping organizations to adapt and grow in an increasingly uncertain and volatile world.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business ...
Berger, G. "Phénoménologies du Temps et Prospectives." Presse Universitaires de France, 1964.
Bradfield, Ron; Wright, George; Burt, George; Cairns, George; Heijden, Kees Van Der. "The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning". Futures. 37 (8): 795–812.
Kahn, Herman 1965: Thinking About the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press.
Schoemaker, Paul J.H. “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation,” Strategic Management Journal. Vol. 14: 1993, pp 193-213.
Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. Doubleday, 1991.
van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Wiley & Sons, 1996.
Wack, Pierre. "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead", Harvard Business Review. September–October, 1985.
Scenario planning
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn developed scenarios to see past the cultural blind spot that thermonuclear war must never happen. What if it did happen? asked Kahn. What sort of world might the survivors face? One dismayed critic, Gerard Piel of Scientific American, coined the phrase "thinking the unthinkable" to describe Kahn's approach, but Kahn gleefully embraced the phrase. Thinking the unthinkable, he argued, was the only way to keep one's strategic vision from getting stale.
Art Kleiner 1999: Scenario Practice
www.web.archive.org ...
Pierre Wack
Pierre Wack refined Kahn's methods at Royal Dutch/Shell. When he described the coming oil crisis of the 1970s, in advance, to Shell executives, he wasn't telling them a surprise; everyone in the oil business could see the OPEC cartel coalescing, ready to dictate shortages to an oil-addicted world. But Wack made it clear that the long-standing oil company assumption – "Whatever crisis crosses our path, we'll handle it as we always have" – would not save them this time. They could not meet the turbulence of the economy around them with their old stolid complacency.
Art Kleiner 1999: Scenario Practice
www.web.archive.org ...
Wack, Peter: Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead, Harvard Business Review, September – October 1985.
Wack, Peter: Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, November – December 1985.
Scenario building and scenario planning
However a nevessary distinction must be introduced, the one between scenario building and scenario planning. Building scenarios means speculating about the uncertainty surrounding the future: basically it means envisaging a few different possible future outcomes for the situation under scrutiny or, in the word of the Swedish neurobiologist David Ingvar, to create “memories of the future” (Schwartz, 1992).
Martelli, A. (2001) ‘Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of
evolution’, Future Research Quarterly
www.antoniomartelli.com ...
Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View. Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
World, Bantam Doubleday Dell, New York, 1991 – 1996
Slaughter, R.
Slaughter, R. (1995) The Foresight Principle, Adamantine, London.
Slaughter, R. (1996) The Knowledge Base of Future Studies, DDM Media, Vol. 1–3.
Slaughter, R. (2000) Futures: Tools and Techniques, Futures Study Centre, Indooroopilly, Qld.
Ulrich Beck
The Brave New World of Work
by Ulrich Beck 2000. Cambridge University Press.
Beck's vision is centred on the concept of active citizens democratically organized in local, and increasingly also regional or transnational, networks. Against the threat of social exclusion, everyone can and must have a right to be included in a new definition and distribution of work. This will involve constant movement between formal employment (with a major reduction in working hours) and forms of self-organized artistic, cultural and political 'civil labour', providing equal access to comprehensive social protection. ... the very survival of democracy and the welfare state will depend on the development of a newly committed and 'multi-active' transnational citizenship.
www.books.google.dk/books ...
World at Risk
Ulrich Beck 2007. English ed. Polity Press 2009.
www.books.google.dk/books ...
World Risk Society by Ulrich Beck
Review: ... the distribution of benefits, is replaced by the distribution of dangers. These dangers are the unintended consequences of industrial society such as nuclear accidents, bio-hazards, BSE etc.
www.librarything.com/work ...
Michel Godet
Michel Godet
www.fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Godet
Scenario approach of Michel Godet and Fabrice Roubelat
www.papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers ...
MICMAC- and MACTOR Method
Arcade, S., Godet, M., Meunier, F. and Roubelat, F. (1999) Structural Analysis with the MICMAC
Method & Actors’ Strategy with MACTOR Method.
www.en.laprospective.fr
Strategic Foresight
Joseph Coates, Philippe Durance, Michel Godet eds. 2010: Strategic Foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 77, Issue 9, 2010
www.en.laprospective.fr ...tfscvol77.pdf
Scenario Planning and Strategic Management
Michel Godet 2006: Creating Futures - Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool.
Preface by Joseph F. COATES. Paris : Economica, 2006 - ISBN 2-7178-5244-1. Second Edition.
www.en.laprospective.fr/dyn/anglais ... pdf
Stategic prospective
Michel Godet 1994: From anticipation to action
A handbook of stategic prospective.
Unesco Publishing
www.en.laprospective.fr ... anticipation.pdf
Prospective software
Free online software developed by Michel Godet now handled by Futuribles International
www.en.laprospective.fr/dyn/anglais ... pdf
Corporate and Regional Development
Michel Godet and Philippe Durance: Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development
www.en.laprospective.fr/books.html
Futuribles International is a centre for foresight thinking and studies which aims to effectively integrate a sense of the long-term into decision-making and action.
www.futuribles.com
www.twitter.com/Futuribles_int
Circle for Prospective Action (CAP)
www.en.laprospective.fr/circle ...
Sustainability
Samuel Alexander, co-director of the Simplicity Institute, is a lecturer at the Office for Environmental Programs, University of Melbourne, Australia, teaching a course called ‘Consumerism and the Growth Economy:
www.simplicityinstitute.org/samuel-alexander
www.simplicitycollective.com/the-simple-life ...
Oil economy
The Paradox of Oil: The Cheaper it is, the More it Costs
(Simplicity Institute Report, 15a, 2015) S. Alexander
... connection between oil, economy and geopolitics ...
www.simplicityinstitute.org ... pdf